Forecast Track Record
Every reviewed forecast is shown with its original probability, terminal outcome and Brier score. No old forecast is rewritten.
31Forecasts logged
27Terminal reviews
24Hits
0Partial
3Misses
0.1504Mean Brier
Reviewed Forecasts
| ID / dates | Domain | Pre-registered claim | p | Outcome | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| forecast-20260608-001 2026-06-08 -> 2026-06-11 |
security 72h |
No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-11: Hezbollah compliance with South Litani evacuation will remain unverified, or Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom will persist, or no joint in-effect implementation statement will exist. | 0.82 | hit | 0.0324 |
| forecast-20260608-002 2026-06-08 -> 2026-06-11 |
security 72h |
The renewed direct Israel-Iran exchange will remain below a verified mass-casualty strike on Israeli population centers and below a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase through 2026-06-11: further missile/drone exchanges, interceptions or retaliatory strikes may recur, but no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers and no confirmed continuous daily Israel-Iran kinetic phase will be established. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
| forecast-20260608-003 2026-06-08 -> 2026-06-11 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-11 despite the renewed Israel-Iran exchange and severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf/Israel strike, complete zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
| forecast-20260607-001 2026-06-07 -> 2026-06-10 |
security 72h |
No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-10: Hezbollah compliance with South Litani evacuation will remain unverified, or Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom will persist, or no joint in-effect implementation statement will exist. | 0.72 | hit | 0.0784 |
| forecast-20260607-002 2026-06-07 -> 2026-06-10 |
security 72h |
No verified Israeli strike on Beirut or Dahiyeh will occur by 2026-06-10, even though southern-Lebanon strikes/operations may continue. | 0.58 | miss | 0.3364 |
| forecast-20260607-003 2026-06-07 -> 2026-06-10 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-10 despite severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, complete zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
| forecast-20260606-001 2026-06-06 -> 2026-06-09 |
security 72h |
The U.S.-Iran/Gulf exchange will remain below a mass-casualty or sustained-daily-war threshold through 2026-06-09: isolated missile/drone exchanges, interceptions and retaliatory strikes may recur, but no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE or Qatar and no confirmed continuous daily U.S.-Iran kinetic phase will be established. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
| forecast-20260606-002 2026-06-06 -> 2026-06-09 |
security 72h |
No verified Israeli strike on Beirut or Dahiyeh will occur by 2026-06-09, even though Israeli strikes/operations in southern Lebanon and ceasefire-implementation disputes may continue. | 0.58 | miss | 0.3364 |
| forecast-20260606-003 2026-06-06 -> 2026-06-09 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-09 despite severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, total zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
| forecast-20260605-001 2026-06-05 -> 2026-06-08 |
security 72h |
No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-08: Hezbollah will not have verifiably accepted/implemented the South Litani evacuation condition, and at least some Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom or Hezbollah fire/attack claims will persist. | 0.75 | hit | 0.0625 |
| forecast-20260605-002 2026-06-05 -> 2026-06-08 |
diplomacy 72h |
The U.S.-Iran track will not produce a jointly announced concrete restored framework/MOU or permanent peace agreement by 2026-06-08; communications may continue, but the process remains stalled, contested or Lebanon-conditioned. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
| forecast-20260605-003 2026-06-05 -> 2026-06-08 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-08, despite Hormuz still being effectively closed/restricted, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, total transit halt, or major supply-loss event occurs. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
| forecast-20260604-001 2026-06-04 -> 2026-06-07 |
security 72h |
The June 4 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire/pilot-zones framework will NOT become a fully operational comprehensive halt by 2026-06-07: at least one of these remains true - Hezbollah has not verifiably evacuated the South Litani Sector, Israel continues strikes or ground operations south of its Yellow Line/buffer zone, or no mutually acknowledged implementation statement exists. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
| forecast-20260604-002 2026-06-04 -> 2026-06-07 |
diplomacy 72h |
No first pilot zone, including a possible Beaufort Castle/Ridge zone, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control and free of Hezbollah presence by 2026-06-07. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
| forecast-20260604-003 2026-06-04 -> 2026-06-07 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-07, despite the Hormuz disruption and Lebanon-framework uncertainty, unless a verified new complete Hormuz transit halt or major Gulf mass-casualty/supply-loss event occurs. | 0.55 | hit | 0.2025 |
| forecast-20260603-001 2026-06-03 -> 2026-06-06 |
security 72h |
The June 2 U.S.-Iran Gulf exchange will remain a contained tit-for-tat through 2026-06-06: no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on a Gulf state (Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE or Qatar) and no sustained new daily U.S.-Iran combat phase (the largely-intercepted, no-mass-casualty pattern holds). | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
| forecast-20260603-002 2026-06-03 -> 2026-06-06 |
security 72h |
The partial Beirut-axis halt will hold through 2026-06-06: Israel will not conduct a verified strike on Beirut or its southern suburbs (Dahiyeh), even as Israeli operations and strikes continue in southern Lebanon. | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
| forecast-20260603-003 2026-06-03 -> 2026-06-06 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-06 despite the June 2 Gulf escalation, holding in the ~$90s, absent a verified complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a major new supply loss. | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
| forecast-20260602-001 2026-06-02 -> 2026-06-05 |
energy 72h |
Despite the Tasnim/IRGC-linked threat, Iran will NOT carry out a verified complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz (no credibly confirmed halt of commercial tanker transits) by 2026-06-05. | 0.80 | hit | 0.0400 |
| forecast-20260602-002 2026-06-02 -> 2026-06-05 |
diplomacy 72h |
The U.S.-Iran negotiation track will remain suspended, contested or stalled through 2026-06-05; no jointly announced resumption with a concrete restored framework/MOU will emerge. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
| forecast-20260602-003 2026-06-02 -> 2026-06-05 |
security 72h |
Despite Trump's halt announcement, no comprehensive, mutually-acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-05: Israeli strikes/operations in southern Lebanon will continue and Israel will not publicly confirm a binding ceasefire (at most a partial, Beirut-axis de-escalation holds). | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
| forecast-20260601-001 2026-06-01 -> 2026-06-04 |
security 72h |
Following Netanyahu's expansion order, Israel will be credibly reported (IDF/AP/Reuters/ToI) to have advanced ground forces into at least one additional named locality north of the Litani beyond the already-held Beaufort Ridge / Wadi al-Saluki arc by 2026-06-04. | 0.55 | miss | 0.3025 |
| forecast-20260601-002 2026-06-01 -> 2026-06-04 |
diplomacy 72h |
The June 2-3 U.S.-hosted Israel-Lebanon talks will end without a publicly announced Israeli withdrawal or binding operational halt; they will instead continue, stall, or yield only a framework/extension by 2026-06-04. | 0.72 | hit | 0.0784 |
| forecast-20260601-003 2026-06-01 -> 2026-06-04 |
markets 72h |
Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-04, holding the May deal-optimism pullback rather than returning to the April-May spike, absent a deal collapse or a new Hormuz incident. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
| forecast-20260531-001 2026-05-31 -> 2026-06-03 |
security 72h |
Israel will retain a visible military presence on or around Beaufort Ridge and/or expand nearby operations around Wadi al-Saluki/Nabatieh through 2026-06-03; no verified withdrawal from Beaufort Ridge before the check date. | 0.70 | hit | 0.0900 |
| forecast-20260531-002 2026-05-31 -> 2026-06-03 |
diplomacy 72h |
UNSC/diplomatic pressure over Lebanon will intensify within 72h, but will not produce an immediate Israeli operational halt or verified Beaufort pullback by 2026-06-03. | 0.65 | hit | 0.1225 |
| forecast-20260531-003 2026-05-31 -> 2026-06-03 |
markets 72h |
No clean public U.S.-Iran 60-day MOU including durable Strait of Hormuz reopening will be announced by 2026-06-03; negotiations will remain conditional, delayed, or partially disputed. | 0.60 | hit | 0.1600 |
Boundaries
- Forecasts are pre-registered and never rewritten after the outcome.
- Terminal reviews can be hit, partial or miss; every miss remains visible.
- Brier scores are shown as scoring math, not as a public accuracy percentage.
- This page is not emergency guidance and not a prediction guarantee.