GI

Forecast Arena

Visual-first forecast vs reality board. Read-only, ledger-backed, no public accuracy claim.

Theme 2026-06-11 Data: auditable event & forecast ledgers All dashboards
Current situation

What the system expected, what actually happened, and what is due next.

critical 3/4 axes at critical
Data freshness as of 2026-06-11T11:17:47Z Data: auditable event & forecast ledgers
What changed today 2026-06-11
Next checkpoint display only
Next review date 2026-06-14
Forecasts due next
forecast-20260611-001forecast-20260611-002forecast-20260611-003forecast-20260611-004
Latest news & signals Latest-run ledger events · daily, not live
Source baskets4 single-source9 propaganda risk0 caveats12 Sample27/50
Risk Pulse
critical not a probability
Risk axes 4
Main drivers 3
Watch Tracks 4
Global critical flat
Middle East critical flat
Israel critical flat
Finance high flat
Changed today 0/4 Evidence: medium 0 single-source drivers
Main drivers
event-20260611-002 · security · critical event-20260611-003 · markets · high event-20260611-001 · security · critical
open risk dashboard
Reality Track

forecast-20260606-002 Drift +0.58

No public forecasting-accuracy claim
forecast-20260606-003 · p=0.55 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.45 forecast-20260607-001 · p=0.72 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.28 forecast-20260607-002 · p=0.58 · outcome=0 · drift=+0.58 forecast-20260607-003 · p=0.55 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.45 forecast-20260608-001 · p=0.82 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.18 forecast-20260608-002 · p=0.55 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.45 forecast-20260608-003 · p=0.55 · outcome=1 · drift=-0.45 probability band reality markers 0.0 1.0
terminal n=27 Mean Brier 0.1504 Hit rate 0.89
open reality dashboard

Resolved Tracks

Details are drilldown-only; first screen remains visual.
forecast-20260608-003 DRIFT

US / Iran · markets

Probability55.0%
Outcome1
55.0% check 2026-06-11
Brier 0.2025 under 0.45 medium
open full view
forecast / reality text

Forecast: Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-11 despite the renewed Israel-Iran exchange and severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf/Israel strike, complete zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs.

Reality: Brent remained below $100/bbl through the June 11 review. Trading Economics showed Brent at $91.99 on June 11, and The Guardian reported Brent trading above $93 on Wednesday, both below the pre-registered $100 threshold. No checked market source showed Brent trading or settling at or above $100 before the review, despite U.S.-Iran/Gulf escalation and disputed Hormuz closure claims. See event-20260611-003.

forecast-20260608-002 DRIFT

Israel / Iran · security

Probability55.0%
Outcome1
55.0% check 2026-06-11
Brier 0.2025 under 0.45 medium
open full view
forecast / reality text

Forecast: The renewed direct Israel-Iran exchange will remain below a verified mass-casualty strike on Israeli population centers and below a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase through 2026-06-11: further missile/drone exchanges, interceptions or retaliatory strikes may recur, but no verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers and no confirmed continuous daily Israel-Iran kinetic phase will be established.

Reality: The renewed direct Israel-Iran exchange stayed below the forecast's Israel-specific failure threshold through the June 11 check. AP reported Israel and Iran traded fire on June 8 and then appeared to pause. Later AP/Guardian evidence showed severe U.S.-Iran/Gulf/Jordan escalation, disputed Hormuz closure claims, Jordan missile interceptions without injuries/material damage, and one Bahrain debris injury, but did not establish a verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers or a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase by June 11. See event-20260611-002.

forecast-20260608-001 HIT

Israel / Hezbollah · security

Probability82.0%
Outcome1
82.0% check 2026-06-11
Brier 0.0324 under 0.18 medium
open full view
forecast / reality text

Forecast: No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire will be in effect by 2026-06-11: Hezbollah compliance with South Litani evacuation will remain unverified, or Israeli strike/ground-operation freedom will persist, or no joint in-effect implementation statement will exist.

Reality: No fully operational, mutually acknowledged Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was in effect by the June 11 check. The framework remained conditional on Hezbollah cessation/evacuation and LAF pilot-zone control; The Guardian reported Hezbollah rejection/non-participation and Netanyahu saying there was no deal because Hezbollah opposed it; and AP/Guardian evidence showed continued Israeli strike activity including Sidon after the framework. No reviewed evidence showed verified Hezbollah South Litani compliance, an Israeli operational halt, or a joint Israel/Lebanon/U.S. in-effect implementation statement. See event-20260611-001.

forecast-20260607-003 DRIFT

US / Iran · markets

Probability55.0%
Outcome1
55.0% check 2026-06-10
Brier 0.2025 under 0.45 medium
open full view
forecast / reality text

Forecast: Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-10 despite severe Hormuz disruption, unless a new verified mass-casualty Gulf strike, complete zero-transit Hormuz halt or major supply-loss event occurs.

Reality: Brent remained below $100/bbl through the June 10 review. Trading Economics showed Brent at $91.77/bbl on June 9, down 2.72% on the day, and no checked market source showed Brent trading or settling at or above $100 before the review. Hormuz remained severely stressed in prior Straits evidence, but no newly verified complete zero-transit halt or $100 Brent trigger was found. See event-20260610-002.

Watch Tracks

4 open/due
forecast-20260611-001 WATCH

Israel / Hezbollah · security

Probability72.0%
Outcomepending
72.0% check 2026-06-14
Middle East security medium
open full view
forecast text

No named Israel-Lebanon pilot zone, including Beaufort Castle/Ridge, will be publicly verified as under exclusive Lebanese Armed Forces control and free of Hezbollah armed presence by 2026-06-14, even if framework diplomacy or monitoring language continues.

Expected evidence: AP/Reuters/Al Jazeera/Guardian/official Lebanese-Israeli-U.S. readouts show planning, negotiations or partial monitoring language, but no named pilot zone with verified exclusive LAF control and no Hezbollah armed presence before the check date.

forecast-20260611-002 WATCH

US / Iran · diplomacy

Probability62.0%
Outcomepending
62.0% check 2026-06-14
Global diplomacy medium
open full view
forecast text

The U.S.-Iran track will not produce a jointly acknowledged restored framework, document or memorandum of understanding by 2026-06-14, even after Trump's cancellation of scheduled strikes; talks, mediator messages or unilateral claims may continue without a mutually confirmed text.

Expected evidence: AP/Reuters/Guardian/official U.S.-Iran-Gulf statements show continued messaging, mediator activity, strike pauses or contradictory claims, but no jointly acknowledged U.S.-Iran framework/MOU/document in effect by the check date.

forecast-20260611-003 WATCH

Israel / Iran · security

Probability58.0%
Outcomepending
58.0% check 2026-06-14
Middle East security medium
open full view
forecast text

The direct Israel-Iran lane will remain below a verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers and below a sustained daily Israel-Iran combat phase through 2026-06-14; alerts, interceptions, isolated launches or single-day retaliatory strikes may still occur.

Expected evidence: AP/Reuters/Israeli Home Front/IDF/Iranian-state reporting may show alerts, exchanges or isolated strikes, but not a verified mass-casualty Iranian strike on Israeli population centers and not confirmed kinetic actions by both Israel and Iran on two consecutive local dates after 2026-06-11.

forecast-20260611-004 WATCH

US / Iran · markets

Probability58.0%
Outcomepending
58.0% check 2026-06-14
Global markets medium
open full view
forecast text

Brent crude will remain below $100/bbl through 2026-06-14 despite Kharg/Hormuz threats and U.S.-Iran escalation, unless verified oil-export infrastructure damage, a complete zero-transit Hormuz halt, or another major supply-loss event occurs.

Expected evidence: Market-data sources such as Trading Economics/Reuters/CNBC/ICE references show Brent below $100 through 2026-06-14 on a declared live spot or settlement basis, while oil infrastructure and Hormuz remain stressed but not verified as a complete supply-loss/zero-transit event.

Read-only analytical view built from auditable event, forecast and review ledgers. It makes no public accuracy claim and gives no emergency guidance - official alerts decide action.